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Prof House said he believed while the next wave was hard to predict, there is likely to be a substantial third “exit wave” adding, “this is how pandemics often go – there are three waves followed by something more endemic”.
But he said: “I cannot imagine a situation where lockdown is appropriate anymore. It was always the thing you did when you couldn’t think of anything else, and there is nothing to justify this coming into winter or a new wave.
“Lockdowns have led to a buildup of many other problems – the longer you look down the more problems you create. We now need to move to a voluntary phase.
“If we need to reduce transmission we need sustainable, fair and proportionate measures. This is better as a voluntary system.
“We did not get on top of HIV by stigmatising compelling and criminalising sexual behaviour. This is not about moralising. We need to support people to be healthy.
“I’m also worried about the fact that we’ve accumulated a lot of other health problems including elective work.
“Both Japan and Sweden managed things on voluntary measures.
“Almost everything Anders Tegnell (the architect of Sweden’s soft “voluntary” lockdown) said makes sense and he was thinking long-term.
“The government was criticised for not locking down early enough, and that this was experimental – but lockdown itself was an experiment and Sweden has done no worse than similar rich European countries.
“We could have done this without coercion, fear based messaging and without criminalisation. We could have used education support and guidance and if you try and start treating people like adults they behave like adults. Similarly the consequences of letting it rip, as happened in Brazil, were dreadful.”
He said attempts to introduce another lockdown could be futile in any event because people would simply refuse to comply.
“Coercive measures should not be the response,” he said. “They are counter-productive because people will refuse to adhere. You cannot stop young people having parties indefinitely and if you do then they will have underground parties.
“What’s the point in being alive if you can’t have spontaneous events?
“I also worry about the way children are being harmed – and it is ridiculous that some scientists are getting so worked up about children spreading the infection that we are still masking children in school while crowds gather and get drunk at football matches. We need to balance harms and I know where my social priorities lie. This huge focus from some keyboard warriors on children is harming them.”
He added: “I know of no real specialist who ever thought we would get to zero Covid.”
Professor David Paton, an economist at Nottingham University Business School, said he anticipated a rise in infections in the coming months as the seasons changed.
But he said: “My answer about lockdowns is the same.
“There is no evidence that lockdowns are particularly effective in reducing deaths and hospitalisations.
“The evidence from across the world shows that, if anything, lockdowns are associated with higher rates of excess death.
“The idea that lockdown will help just doesn’t stack up. The only possible argument for a lockdown is to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. However it is not clear that lockdown will help even with this.
“We know that coronavirus infections peaked before each of the English lockdowns meaning lockdowns were simply not necessary to relieve pressure on hospitals.
“I am calling for the Governments to give a reassurance now that they will no longer use lockdowns even if cases increase this winter. By doing this it will give confidence to the markets and to businesses.”
Professor Robert Dingwall, a sociologist from Nottingham Trent university, said: “In a population with a high degree of immunity, whether from infection or vaccination, Covid can be left to take its place among the other pathogens that coexist with humans.
“This may offend those factions who would like to use the crisis as a means to plan and control everyone else’s lives according to their own agendas – but the very messiness and spontaneity of human societies is what makes them worth living in.”
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